Phius 2021 Source Energy Factor for Grid Electricity

Phius 2021 will include a change to the source energy calculation for grid electricity to more accurately reflect future grid conditions and better weigh the impact of electricity versus natural gas use on site.

In past versions of PHIUS+, the source energy factor for grid electricity was defined by the Energy Star Portfolio Manager and was determined based on past generation and consumption data from the EIA. The calculation methodology accounts for the total primary fuel needed to deliver heat and electricity to the site, including conversion losses at the plant as well as transmission and distribution losses incurred to deliver electricity to the building. Under PHIUS+ 2018, the source energy factor for grid electricity for the U.S. was 2.80, which was an average of the EIA reported data from 2012-2016.

With the release of  PHIUS+ 2021 the calculated factor for the United States grid electricity is 1.73 which reflects a 2050 outlook. 

Figure 1: U.S. power sector evolution over time for the NREL Mid-case scenario

Calculating a future source energy factor for the United States electric grid electricity required the combination of three data sets: 

(1) The projected future electricity generation mix, which was taken from NREL’s Mid-Case Scenario for 2050.

(2) Fuel conversion energy factors per generation type from the EIA.

(3) Total system losses from transmission, distribution and storage, taken from eGRID2018 and NREL’s future grid mix scenario.

A detailed description of the calculation methodology and corresponding data sources can be found in the PHIUS Tech Corner article. Read the full article here.